Emergency Operations

Visit the ESF #3 Mission Models Hub

Disaster Impact Models

Through the use of geospatial tools, USACE provides estimates of possible debris volumes, needs for commodities, number of people and households likely within hurricane force winds, and possible temporary roofing and temporary housing needs starting about three days prior to a forecasted hurricane landfall. Model estimates are developed and posted on this website. Timing of the release of model results is dependent on the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) forecast times, the speed of a storm and estimated time of landfall. The models are applicable for East Coast and Gulf Coast in the United States, Caribbean Islands and Pacific Islands.

These model results provide managers and responders with a first look at the potential severity of a storm of interest and are intended to set the “scale and scope” of the storm event. The models are still general in nature due the uncertainties possible for any storm at this stage. Starting about two days before landfall, mission models for debris, ice and water commodities, temporary roofing and temporary housing are created as soon as possible following the NHC forecast and throughout the day on NHC release times, as warranted by storm forecasts. If no significant change in the storm forecast is made – track, intensity, forward speed, among other considerations – new models will not be produced if the result would be identical to the last forecast. For Pacific Ocean storms, the model execution times will follow CPHC schedules. Post-landfall models will be created as the storms progress inland or out to sea. The final mission models for an event will be created for one to two days after landfall.

How Do I Obtain...

Disaster impact models for the current hurricane season.

Disaster impact models for past hurricane seasons.

Exercise and preparedness models.